For the RMB exchange rate return $6.7 test – Beijing-追踪309

For the RMB exchange rate return $6.7 test – Beijing, Xinhua news agency, Beijing August 29th – the problem of RMB exchange rate: $6.7 for the return of the test by the Xinhua News Agency reporter Jiang Lin on Friday, the Fed is expected to raise interest rates and the dollar index rebounded to strengthen the impact of RMB exchange rate once again faced with "6.7" test. 29, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar reported a 6.6856 price, lower than the previous trading day by 368 basis points. After opening, the RMB spot exchange rate against the U.S. dollar showed a significant low rise, once back to about 6.6720, the afternoon trend began to rebound. Recalling the first two days of the exchange market situation, Beijing branch of Bank of China foreign exchange trader Gong Chao said, as the Fed has issued several officials optimistic about the interest rate outlook, the market continues to increase interest rates this year is expected to greatly enhance. Investors began buying dollars and selling non American currencies. 28, the dollar index rose to 95.59 points, and eventually closed at 95.48. "Because the dollar index is still maintained at around 95.5, and the previous trading day RMB closing price is low, according to the" closing rate + basket currency exchange rate "intermediate price formation mechanism, Monday central bank reported the central price is certainly relatively low." Senior foreign exchange analyst Han Fu said that, compared with the central price significantly lower, more worthy of attention is the future trend of the spot exchange rate and the future changes in the situation of foreign exchange and sales. In the view of Xu Hanfei, chief bond analyst of Guotai Junan, at the end of 8, an important change in the foreign exchange market is that the RMB exchange rate deviates from the dollar, that is, when the dollar is around 95, the RMB is still weakening. He said that this is not the policy "deliberate guidance", but reflects the pressure of supply and demand in the domestic market has increased. In the short term, the RMB exchange rate may once again challenge the 6.7 pass. From July 25th to August 25th, the dollar index dropped from 97.5 to 94.7, and the depreciation rate was nearly 3%, while the spot exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose from only 6.68 to 6.65, and the RMB appreciation rate was less than 0.5%. If the RMB callback with the dollar, in just one or two days down to 6.7 near, or even fell through 6.7, then the RMB ‘easy to depreciate, difficult to rise’ impression will be deepened, which is bound to benefit from the devaluation of the market expected to cool down." The analysis of Han Hui shi. Many traders said that once the RMB fell through 6.7, even if it is only slightly below, the negative attitude of foreign exchange settlement and active purchase of foreign exchange may change, thus increasing the balance of foreign exchange settlement and sale. From the data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange, in July, the bank’s spot sale deficit increased by 45% compared with the previous year, and the long-term foreign exchange settlement deficit increased by 8.6 times. Clearly, the holding companies are waiting for better prices, while the foreign exchange buying companies are worried about the continued decline of the rmb." Han said that this situation in the capital outflow pressure still exists, need to be vigilant. Turning to the dollar and the trend of the RMB, Xu Hanfei think, from the global perspective, the Bank of England led the "loose tide" again set sail in the background, developed economies are difficult to short time "withdrawal" of monetary easing dependence, the United states.

美元拉升 人民币汇率再临“6.7”考验-中新网   新华社北京8月29日专电 题:美元拉升 人民币汇率再临“6.7”考验   新华社记者姜琳   受上周五美联储强化加息预期和美元指数回升影响,人民币汇率再度面临“6.7”考验。29日,人民币对美元汇率中间价报出了6.6856的价格,较前一交易日低了368个基点。开盘后,人民币对美元即期汇率呈现明显的低开高走,一度拉回6.6720左右,午后走势又开始反弹。   回顾前两天的汇市情况,中国银行北京分行外汇交易员龚超介绍说,由于美联储多名官员相继发表关于加息前景的乐观言论,市场对今年继续加息的预期大大提升。投资人开始买入美元,抛售非美货币。28日,美元指数上涨,最高到95.59点,最终收于95.48。   “因为美元指数仍维持在95.5附近,而前一个交易日人民币收盘价偏低,按照‘收盘汇率+一篮子货币汇率’的中间价形成机制,周一央行报中间价肯定比较低。”资深外汇分析师韩会师说,相比中间价大幅走低,更值得关注的是后市即期汇率的走势以及未来结售汇情况的变化。   在国泰君安首席债券分析师徐寒飞看来,8月末外汇市场一个重要的变化是人民币汇率与美元有所背离,也就是说当美元在95点左右的情况下,人民币仍在走弱。他表示,这并非政策“刻意引导”,而反映了国内市场供求压力有所增加。短期看人民币汇率可能再度挑战6.7关口。   “7月25日到8月25日,美元指数从97.5跌落至94.7,贬值幅度将近3%,而同期人民币对美元即期汇率仅从6.68回升至6.65,人民币升值幅度不足0.5%。假如随着美元回调,人民币在短短一两天之内就贬至6.7附近,甚至跌穿6.7,那么人民币‘易贬难升’的印象将被加深,这势必无益于市场贬值预期的降温。”韩会师分析说。   不少交易员表示,一旦人民币跌穿6.7,即使只是小幅度跌破,企业“消极结汇、积极购汇”的心态可能发生变化,进而加大结售汇逆差。   从外汇局公布的数据看,7月,银行代客即期结售汇逆差环比增长了45%,远期结售汇逆差环比增长了8.6倍。“显然持汇企业在等待更好的价格,而购汇企业则在担忧人民币继续走低。”韩会师表示,这种情况在资本流出压力依然存在的当前,需要引起警惕。   谈及美元及人民币走势,徐寒飞认为,从全球看,英国央行引领“宽松潮”再度启航的背景下,发达经济体很难短时间“戒断”对货币宽松的依赖,美联储“独辟蹊径”的可能性并不大。   韩会师说,如果9月美联储议息会议之前美元指数跌到了90附近,那么加息是一定的;如果美元指数能够在95-98之间徘徊,加息将毫无希望。   人民币汇率面临“6.7”考验之下,企业该如何降低汇兑风险?韩会师建议,如果看到人民币即期汇率并无跟随中间价快速走弱的迹象,那么近期美元的强势可能为企业提供了一个相对较好的结汇时间。相关的主题文章:

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